The thermal power capacity in India which has already received environmental clearances or is in the clearance pipeline is far in excess of what is needed in the coming two decades.
Data from the Ministry of Environment and Forests (MoEF) analysed by the Pune-based Prayas Energy Group shows that the ministry has accorded environmental clearances to a large number of coal and gas-based power plants whose capacity totals 192,913 MW. Another 508,907 MW are at various stages in the environmental clearance cycle, that is, they are either Awaiting Environmental Clearance, or have Terms of Reference (TOR) Granted, or are Awaiting TOR. Since it is extremely rare for a thermal power plant (TPP) to be denied environmental clearance, this means that there are around 701,820 MW of coal and gas plants waiting to be built in the coming years. Coalbased plants account for an overwhelming 84 per cent of these projects.
These additions are more than six times the currently installed thermal capacity of 113,000 MW. They are also three times the capacity addition that would be required to meet the needs of the high renewables-high efficiency scenario for year 2032 projected by the Planning Commission’s Integrated Energy Policy report. This is also seven times the proposed total addition (not just thermal) in the 12th Plan (100,000 MW). Moreover, this is three times the total thermal capacity addition needed by year 2032 (230,000 MW). The government is planning way ahead.
Someone obviously will be paying for all this. The Prayas study found that many of the projects in pipeline will be geographically concentrated in a few areas. Only 30 districts (or 4.7 per cent of the total 626) will have more than half of the proposed plants with their capacity adding up to about 380,000 MW. Several of these districts are adjoining each other, and hence the real concentration of power plants is even higher than that revealed by the district-wise figures.
Corporates are set to make a killing. While the state and central sectors have a large share in existing TPPs (at 82 per cent), private sector participation is set to increase significantly, with the private sector accounting for 73 per cent of all projects in pipeline. Here are 10 corporate groups proposing 160,000 MW, with a further consolidation expected. The top corporates in the game are Reliance, GMRCompany and Lanco Pvt Ltd.
The stage is also set for an environmental disaster. The MoEF has not mandated sulphur removal equipment except for a handful of plants. There are no ambient air quality standards for mercury, nor any limits on mercury emissions from power plants. The MoEF now requires 100 per cent utilisation of coal ash within four years of plant commissioning, but the capacity to do so remains doubtful and the monitoring weak. Meanwhile, ash disposal in ponds or dumps continues to create serious pollution and health problems for local communities.
In 2009, the MoEF identified several areas in the country as Critically Polluted. Large numbers of proposed plants, with a total capacity of 88,000 MW, are located within the same districts as eight of these critically polluted areas. The geographic concentration and location within critically polluted areas is likely to exacerbate the pollution impacts of these projects. The Critically Polluted areas are Angul in Orissa, Bharuch in Gujarat, Singrauli in Madhya Pradesh, Cuddalore in Tamil Nadu, Jharsuguda in Orissa, Chandrapur in Maharashtra, Korba in Chhatisgadh, and Visakhapatnam in Andhra Pradesh.
As most of the capacity in the pipeline is coal based, and a large proportion of it relies on domestic coal, the implications on fuel supply are substantial. While India is said to have abundant coal, the country has not been able to achieve the required production from these reserves, and a steep rise in imports is forecast for the end of the 12th Plan.
The proposed plants are also going to create massive demands for water. As water is an intensely local need, the local impacts are crucial. A river basin may have enough water at the basin level, but may be under immense stress in the area where the TPP is located. The geographical concentration of plants will further aggravate this situation. The Prayas report estimates that the consumptive water needs of just the plants with Environmental Clearance Granted will be close to 4.6 billion cubic meters per year. Given this, a number of potential water conflict situations appear to be in the making.
